Europe
Europe logistics activity is deteriorating in marginal contraction at 49.8 — deteriorating sharply.
- Headline 49.8 (-0.8 MoM) — contraction · deteriorating.
- Breadth — 4 of 10 sub-indexes in expansion (8 weighted + 2 diagnostic); 2 rising, 8 easing this month; of the 8 weighted, 3 in expansion and 1 rising.
- Business Volume led the move (-1.1); Warehousing the main support (+0.3).
Trajectory & forecast
At 49.8, Europe sits -0.3 below its 8-month average of 50.1. The September 2026 forecast points to 49.3 (-0.5 on the month).
Changes are computed from full-precision index values before rounding; readings shown at one decimal may not difference exactly. Trend classification uses the ±0.15 no-change band on unrounded values.
What changed — level vs momentum
Below the 50 no-change line; more sub-indexes easing (8) than rising (2) — 4 of 10 in expansion; 3 of the 8 weighted.
What's driving it — sub-index decomposition
Business Volume and Transportation carry the most weight in the composite. This month Business Volume contributed the most to the move (-1.1); Warehousing was the main support (+0.3).
Full sub-index detail
weight · value · vs priorMacro context & peers
Europe is benchmarked against 42 tracked economies. At 49.8 it sits below the global median of 51.7; 32 of 42 economies are in expansion this month.
Dots are coloured by region; economies above the dashed 50 line are expanding. Small open economies often sit high-and-left — strong logistics reads relative to GDP — reflecting trade-entrepôt roles.
Full ranking — all 42 economies
| # | Economy | LGI | MoM | GDP $T | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Korea | 62.1 | +1.8 | 1.87 | 1.7% |
| 2 | Vietnam | 56.9 | 0.0 | 0.49 | 0.5% |
| 3 | Sweden | 55.5 | +0.5 | 0.67 | 0.6% |
| 4 | Nigeria | 54.8 | +0.4 | 0.19 | 0.2% |
| 5 | Taiwan | 54.6 | +0.2 | 0.92 | 0.9% |
| 6 | India | 54.5 | -1.1 | 3.92 | 3.7% |
| 7 | Denmark | 54.1 | +1.0 | 0.46 | 0.4% |
| 8 | Malaysia | 54.0 | +1.2 | 0.47 | 0.4% |
| 9 | Netherlands | 53.5 | +0.1 | 1.33 | 1.2% |
| 10 | Singapore | 53.5 | +0.4 | 0.60 | 0.6% |
| 11 | Turkey | 53.4 | +0.2 | 1.60 | 1.5% |
| 12 | Switzerland | 53.1 | +0.4 | 1.04 | 1.0% |
| 13 | Poland | 53.0 | +1.7 | 1.04 | 1.0% |
| 14 | United States | 52.8 | -1.1 | 30.77 | 28.8% |
| 15 | Japan | 52.7 | +0.3 | 4.43 | 4.1% |
| 16 | Thailand | 52.6 | +0.3 | 0.58 | 0.5% |
| 17 | Canada | 52.3 | -0.2 | 2.32 | 2.2% |
| 18 | Ireland | 52.2 | -1.7 | 0.72 | 0.7% |
| 19 | United Arab Emirates | 52.1 | +2.1 | 0.57 | 0.5% |
| 20 | Hong Kong | 52.1 | -0.1 | 0.43 | 0.4% |
| 21 | Indonesia | 51.8 | +0.5 | 1.45 | 1.4% |
| 22 | China | 51.7 | +1.3 | 19.63 | 18.3% |
| 23 | Argentina | 51.5 | -0.5 | 0.68 | 0.6% |
| 24 | Spain | 51.1 | -1.2 | 1.90 | 1.8% |
| 25 | Italy | 50.8 | +0.9 | 2.55 | 2.4% |
| 26 | Norway | 50.8 | -0.5 | 0.53 | 0.5% |
| 27 | Morocco | 50.8 | +0.6 | 0.17 | 0.2% |
| 28 | Austria | 50.6 | +1.0 | 0.58 | 0.5% |
| 29 | United Kingdom | 50.6 | -1.3 | 4.00 | 3.7% |
| 30 | Mexico | 50.5 | -1.7 | 1.83 | 1.7% |
| 31 | Philippines | 50.3 | +1.9 | 0.49 | 0.5% |
| 32 | Brazil | 50.2 | -1.6 | 2.28 | 2.1% |
| 33 | Algeria | 49.9 | +0.3 | 0.27 | 0.3% |
| 34 | Germany | 49.6 | -1.7 | 5.05 | 4.7% |
| 35 | Egypt | 49.2 | +0.4 | 0.35 | 0.3% |
| 36 | Australia | 49.1 | -1.6 | 1.84 | 1.7% |
| 37 | Israel | 48.7 | -1.3 | 0.61 | 0.6% |
| 38 | South Africa | 48.4 | -2.3 | 0.43 | 0.4% |
| 39 | Saudi Arabia | 48.3 | -1.3 | 1.28 | 1.2% |
| 40 | Belgium | 47.0 | +0.3 | 0.72 | 0.7% |
| 41 | France | 46.0 | +0.3 | 3.37 | 3.1% |
| 42 | Russia | 45.1 | -3.8 | 2.59 | 2.4% |
How to read this report · methodology
Diffusion scale. 50 = no change vs the prior month. Above 50 signals expansion, below signals contraction; distance from 50 measures signal strength (53 is a firmer expansion than 50.5), while the month-on-month change measures the pace, not the level.
Headline. A weighted average of 8 sub-indexes (weights at right); 2 more (Logistics Cost, Inventory) are tracked alongside as zero-weight diagnostics and do not enter the composite. Headline = 50 + the sum of weighted contributions, so the decomposition reconciles exactly.
Why track it. As a diffusion index it turns ahead of hard trade and output statistics, which lag one to two months; each edition publishes the latest completed month plus a forecast for the next, while official data is still weeks away.
Seasonality. Reported NSA (not seasonally adjusted). To strip calendar effects (Lunar New Year, mid-year lulls, Q4 peak shipping), watch the 3-month average rather than a single month-on-month move; year-on-year comparisons become available once 12 months of history accrue.
Coverage. 8 months of history for this series. The headline and percentile refer to the latest completed month; the forecast month is the forward projection published with the edition, always drawn dashed.
Aggregation. Regions and the World are GDP-weighted across 42 economies (US$107.01T, 2025 base) — larger economies carry proportionally more weight, so an aggregate reflects the economic scale of the activity it measures.
| Business Volume | 0.22 |
| Transportation | 0.18 |
| Warehousing | 0.14 |
| Goods for Sale | 0.13 |
| Transport Capacity | 0.11 |
| Warehouse Capacity | 0.09 |
| Business Sentiment | 0.08 |
| Employment | 0.05 |
| Logistics Cost | 0.00diag |
| Inventory | 0.00diag |