Africa logistics activity is deteriorating in marginal contraction at 49.9 — softening.
- Headline 49.9 (-0.4 MoM) — contraction · deteriorating.
- Breadth — 5 of 10 sub-indexes in expansion (8 weighted + 2 diagnostic); 1 rising, 9 easing this month.
- Transport Capacity led the move (+0.2); Business Volume the main drag (-0.5). The Logistics Cost diagnostic recorded the largest single move (-0.8); it carries zero weight in the composite.
Trajectory & forecast
6-month historyAt 49.9, Africa sits -1.1 below its 6-month average of 51.0. The July 2026 forecast points to 49.9 (0.0 on the month).
Changes are computed from full-precision index values before rounding; readings shown at one decimal may not difference exactly. Trend classification uses the ±0.15 no-change band on unrounded values.
What changed — level vs momentum
Below the 50 no-change line; more sub-indexes slowing than accelerating — 5 of 10 in expansion.
What's driving it — sub-index decomposition
Business Volume and Transportation carry the most weight in the composite. This month Transport Capacity added the most to the move (+0.2), partly offset by Business Volume (-0.5). The Logistics Cost diagnostic recorded the largest single move (-0.8); it carries zero weight in the composite.
Full sub-index detail
value · weight · vs priorMacro context & peers
30 of 42 economies in expansionAfrica is benchmarked against 42 tracked economies. At 49.9 it sits below the global median of 51.7; 30 of 42 economies are in expansion this month.
Dots are coloured by region; economies above the dashed 50 line are expanding. Small open economies often sit high-and-left — strong logistics reads relative to GDP — reflecting trade-entrepôt roles.
Full ranking — all 42 economies
| # | Economy | LGI | MoM | GDP $T | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Korea | 58.7 | +1.3 | 1.87 | 1.7% |
| 2 | Vietnam | 55.9 | +0.6 | 0.49 | 0.5% |
| 3 | India | 55.5 | +0.3 | 3.92 | 3.7% |
| 4 | Taiwan | 55.4 | +0.3 | 0.92 | 0.9% |
| 5 | Sweden | 55.1 | +1.1 | 0.67 | 0.6% |
| 6 | Nigeria | 54.3 | +0.2 | 0.19 | 0.2% |
| 7 | Ireland | 53.8 | +0.3 | 0.72 | 0.7% |
| 8 | Singapore | 53.8 | +0.3 | 0.60 | 0.6% |
| 9 | Malaysia | 53.2 | +0.4 | 0.47 | 0.4% |
| 10 | Turkey | 53.1 | +0.2 | 1.60 | 1.5% |
| 11 | United Arab Emirates | 52.9 | -1.1 | 0.57 | 0.5% |
| 12 | United States | 52.9 | -0.2 | 30.77 | 28.8% |
| 13 | Denmark | 52.8 | 0.0 | 0.46 | 0.4% |
| 14 | Netherlands | 52.7 | +1.1 | 1.33 | 1.2% |
| 15 | Switzerland | 52.5 | +0.1 | 1.04 | 1.0% |
| 16 | Mexico | 52.3 | +0.2 | 1.83 | 1.7% |
| 17 | Spain | 52.2 | +0.5 | 1.90 | 1.8% |
| 18 | Poland | 52.1 | -1.1 | 1.04 | 1.0% |
| 19 | Hong Kong | 52.1 | +0.2 | 0.43 | 0.4% |
| 20 | Japan | 52.0 | +1.3 | 4.43 | 4.1% |
| 21 | Thailand | 51.8 | -0.3 | 0.58 | 0.5% |
| 22 | Canada | 51.6 | 0.0 | 2.32 | 2.2% |
| 23 | Norway | 51.4 | -0.2 | 0.53 | 0.5% |
| 24 | Argentina | 51.3 | 0.0 | 0.68 | 0.6% |
| 25 | Italy | 51.3 | -0.3 | 2.55 | 2.4% |
| 26 | Saudi Arabia | 51.3 | +0.6 | 1.28 | 1.2% |
| 27 | Brazil | 51.2 | -0.1 | 2.28 | 2.1% |
| 28 | China | 50.9 | +0.2 | 19.63 | 18.3% |
| 29 | South Africa | 50.9 | -1.2 | 0.43 | 0.4% |
| 30 | Indonesia | 50.6 | -0.3 | 1.45 | 1.4% |
| 31 | Algeria | 49.7 | +0.1 | 0.27 | 0.3% |
| 32 | Morocco | 49.7 | +0.2 | 0.17 | 0.2% |
| 33 | Austria | 49.5 | -0.5 | 0.58 | 0.5% |
| 34 | Germany | 49.4 | +0.9 | 5.05 | 4.7% |
| 35 | Australia | 48.8 | +0.3 | 1.84 | 1.7% |
| 36 | Philippines | 48.8 | +0.9 | 0.49 | 0.5% |
| 37 | Israel | 48.7 | +0.4 | 0.61 | 0.6% |
| 38 | Russia | 48.6 | -0.7 | 2.59 | 2.4% |
| 39 | United Kingdom | 48.4 | -1.6 | 4.00 | 3.7% |
| 40 | Belgium | 46.7 | +0.2 | 0.72 | 0.7% |
| 41 | Egypt | 46.5 | -0.4 | 0.35 | 0.3% |
| 42 | France | 45.2 | +0.1 | 3.37 | 3.1% |
How to read this report · methodology
Diffusion scale. 50 = no change vs the prior month. Above 50 signals expansion, below signals contraction; distance from 50 measures signal strength (53 is a firmer expansion than 50.5), while the month-on-month change measures the pace, not the level.
Headline. A weighted average of 10 sub-indexes — 8 weighted into the composite (weights at right) and 2 (Logistics Cost, Inventory) tracked as 0.00-weight diagnostics. Headline = 50 + the sum of weighted contributions, so the decomposition reconciles exactly.
Why track it. As a diffusion index it turns ahead of hard trade and output statistics, which lag one to two months; each edition publishes the latest completed month plus a forecast for the next, while official data is still weeks away.
Seasonality. Reported NSA (not seasonally adjusted). To strip calendar effects (Lunar New Year, mid-year lulls, Q4 peak shipping), watch the 3-month average rather than a single month-on-month move; year-on-year comparisons become available once 12 months of history accrue.
Coverage. 6 months of history for this series. The headline and percentile refer to the latest completed month; the forecast month is the forward projection published with the edition, always drawn dashed.
Aggregation. Regions and the World are GDP-weighted across 42 economies (US$107.01T, 2025 base) — larger economies carry proportionally more weight, so an aggregate reflects the economic scale of the activity it measures.
| Business Volume | 0.22 |
| Transportation | 0.18 |
| Warehousing | 0.14 |
| Goods for Sale | 0.13 |
| Transport Capacity | 0.11 |
| Warehouse Capacity | 0.09 |
| Business Sentiment | 0.08 |
| Employment | 0.05 |
| Logistics Cost | 0.00diag |
| Inventory | 0.00diag |