Africa
Africa logistics activity is strengthening in modest expansion at 51.9 — firming.
- Headline 51.9 (+0.4 MoM) — expansion · momentum building.
- Breadth — 8 of 10 sub-indexes in expansion (8 weighted + 2 diagnostic); 8 rising, 2 easing this month.
- Business Volume led the move (+0.4); Transport Capacity the main drag (-1.3). The Inventory diagnostic recorded the largest single move (+1.1); it carries zero weight in the composite.
Trajectory & forecast
4-month historyAt 51.9, Africa sits +0.5 above its 4-month average of 51.4. The May 2026 forecast points to 51.8 (-0.1 on the month).
Changes are computed from full-precision index values before rounding; readings shown at one decimal may not difference exactly. Trend classification uses the ±0.15 no-change band on unrounded values.
What changed — level vs momentum
Above the 50 no-change line; more sub-indexes accelerating than slowing — 8 of 10 in expansion.
What's driving it — sub-index decomposition
Business Volume and Transportation carry the most weight in the composite. This month Business Volume added the most to the move (+0.4), partly offset by Transport Capacity (-1.3). The Inventory diagnostic recorded the largest single move (+1.1); it carries zero weight in the composite.
Full sub-index detail
value · weight · vs priorMacro context & peers
33 of 42 economies in expansionAfrica is benchmarked against 42 tracked economies. At 51.9 it sits below the global median of 52.3; 33 of 42 economies are in expansion this month.
Dots are coloured by region; economies above the dashed 50 line are expanding. Small open economies often sit high-and-left — strong logistics reads relative to GDP — reflecting trade-entrepôt roles.
Full ranking — all 42 economies
| # | Economy | LGI | MoM | GDP $T | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United Arab Emirates | 55.8 | +0.6 | 0.57 | 0.5% |
| 2 | Vietnam | 55.1 | +0.6 | 0.49 | 0.5% |
| 3 | India | 55.0 | +1.0 | 3.92 | 3.7% |
| 4 | Morocco | 55.0 | +1.4 | 0.17 | 0.2% |
| 5 | Saudi Arabia | 54.8 | +2.3 | 1.28 | 1.2% |
| 6 | South Africa | 54.6 | +0.5 | 0.43 | 0.4% |
| 7 | United States | 54.5 | +1.7 | 30.77 | 28.8% |
| 8 | South Korea | 54.1 | +1.1 | 1.87 | 1.7% |
| 9 | Singapore | 54.1 | -0.2 | 0.60 | 0.6% |
| 10 | Taiwan | 53.9 | +0.4 | 0.92 | 0.9% |
| 11 | Denmark | 53.8 | +1.3 | 0.46 | 0.4% |
| 12 | Thailand | 53.6 | +0.5 | 0.58 | 0.5% |
| 13 | Ireland | 53.4 | +1.2 | 0.72 | 0.7% |
| 14 | Malaysia | 53.4 | +0.4 | 0.47 | 0.4% |
| 15 | Poland | 53.2 | +0.4 | 1.04 | 1.0% |
| 16 | Mexico | 53.2 | +1.2 | 1.83 | 1.7% |
| 17 | Sweden | 53.2 | +1.2 | 0.67 | 0.6% |
| 18 | Turkey | 52.9 | +0.5 | 1.60 | 1.5% |
| 19 | Brazil | 52.8 | +1.3 | 2.28 | 2.1% |
| 20 | Spain | 52.6 | +1.1 | 1.90 | 1.8% |
| 21 | Nigeria | 52.4 | +0.5 | 0.19 | 0.2% |
| 22 | Canada | 52.2 | +1.2 | 2.32 | 2.2% |
| 23 | Philippines | 52.2 | +0.3 | 0.49 | 0.5% |
| 24 | Argentina | 52.0 | +0.8 | 0.68 | 0.6% |
| 25 | Austria | 51.8 | +0.8 | 0.58 | 0.5% |
| 26 | Norway | 51.8 | +0.2 | 0.53 | 0.5% |
| 27 | Hong Kong | 51.6 | +0.2 | 0.43 | 0.4% |
| 28 | Italy | 51.5 | +0.7 | 2.55 | 2.4% |
| 29 | United Kingdom | 51.5 | +0.7 | 4.00 | 3.7% |
| 30 | Netherlands | 51.4 | +0.6 | 1.33 | 1.2% |
| 31 | Japan | 51.3 | +0.7 | 4.43 | 4.1% |
| 32 | Switzerland | 51.0 | -0.1 | 1.04 | 1.0% |
| 33 | Algeria | 50.1 | +0.2 | 0.27 | 0.3% |
| 34 | Indonesia | 49.9 | -1.9 | 1.45 | 1.4% |
| 35 | China | 49.8 | -2.0 | 19.63 | 18.3% |
| 36 | Australia | 48.9 | -0.9 | 1.84 | 1.7% |
| 37 | Israel | 48.8 | -0.2 | 0.61 | 0.6% |
| 38 | Germany | 48.4 | -0.8 | 5.05 | 4.7% |
| 39 | Egypt | 48.2 | -0.3 | 0.35 | 0.3% |
| 40 | France | 47.8 | -1.1 | 3.37 | 3.1% |
| 41 | Russia | 47.6 | -0.9 | 2.59 | 2.4% |
| 42 | Belgium | 47.3 | -1.7 | 0.72 | 0.7% |
How to read this report · methodology
Diffusion scale. 50 = no change vs the prior month. Above 50 signals expansion, below signals contraction; distance from 50 measures signal strength (53 is a firmer expansion than 50.5), while the month-on-month change measures the pace, not the level.
Headline. A weighted average of 10 sub-indexes — 8 weighted into the composite (weights at right) and 2 (Logistics Cost, Inventory) tracked as 0.00-weight diagnostics. Headline = 50 + the sum of weighted contributions, so the decomposition reconciles exactly.
Why track it. As a diffusion index it turns ahead of hard trade and output statistics, which lag one to two months; each edition publishes the latest completed month plus a forecast for the next, while official data is still weeks away.
Seasonality. Reported NSA (not seasonally adjusted). To strip calendar effects (Lunar New Year, mid-year lulls, Q4 peak shipping), watch the 3-month average rather than a single month-on-month move; year-on-year comparisons become available once 12 months of history accrue.
Coverage. 4 months of history for this series. The headline and percentile refer to the latest completed month; the forecast month is the forward projection published with the edition, always drawn dashed.
Aggregation. Regions and the World are GDP-weighted across 42 economies (US$107.01T, 2025 base) — larger economies carry proportionally more weight, so an aggregate reflects the economic scale of the activity it measures.
| Business Volume | 0.22 |
| Transportation | 0.18 |
| Warehousing | 0.14 |
| Goods for Sale | 0.13 |
| Transport Capacity | 0.11 |
| Warehouse Capacity | 0.09 |
| Business Sentiment | 0.08 |
| Employment | 0.05 |
| Logistics Cost | 0.00diag |
| Inventory | 0.00diag |